Chapter 1 Adapting to climate change: Our long-term strategy

We must adapt to the impacts of climate change.

In the past 100 years, our climate has warmed by 1.1°C. Aotearoa New Zealand is experiencing more hot days and fewer cold days – 2021 was the warmest year on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2016.* Higher temperatures change our physical environment and weather patterns, presenting new and greater risks to the wellbeing of people and communities and their ways of life, buildings and infrastructure, our natural environment and the economy. Sea-level rise is accelerating, with an average rate of rise of 3.7 millimetres per year between 2006 and 2018.** By 2100, median sea-level rise in Aotearoa is projected to increase by a further 0.44 metres on average under a low-emissions scenario and 0.83 metres on average under a high-emissions scenario. Under the highest emission scenario, sea-level rise in Aotearoa is projected to increase by 1.09 metres on average.***

This poses a complex adaptation challenge. We must adapt to both slow-onset changes (such as rising sea levels that threaten coastal ecosystems and infrastructure) and increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events – such as coastal inundation and flooding that can damage homes, roads and other infrastructure, and affect access to coastal areas.

* See the Aotearoa New Zealand Climate Summary: 2021 from NIWA [PDF, 1.8 MB]

** See the Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

*** See the Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections.

Projected changes and impacts on New Zealanders

Extreme weather events – such as storms, heatwaves and heavy rainfall – are likely to be more frequent and intense.* Tropical cyclones are likely to have increased wind intensity and rain rates, and to be stronger and cause more damage. More frequent and intense rainfall could reduce the availability of safe drinking water if treatment systems get overwhelmed, creating a significant risk to public health.

Projections show there will be fewer frost and snow days. Changes to the number of snow days will have significant impacts on hydrology and the seasonal cycle of snowmelt. This will affect the biodiversity of ecosystems, the energy sector and irrigation. Impacts will likely affect skiing and other snow activities, and therefore the tourism industry.

Changes in temperature and seasonality will affect agriculture and horticulture – for example, where certain crops, such as kiwifruit, can be grown. It will also change the timing of key events in the natural environment, from when plants flower to when animals migrate.

We can expect more frequent and severe droughts, particularly east of the Southern Alps / Kā Tiritiri o te Moana. That will put pressure on our freshwater resources – potentially affecting the reliable supply of drinking water, electricity generation and recreational activities like swimming and fishing. The agriculture sector will also be vulnerable to declining crop yields and pasture growth.

Projections indicate we will have stronger, northeasterly airflows in summer and stronger westerlies in winter – particularly in the south of the South Island. This will also affect rainfall patterns. Projected changes vary substantially around the country and by season. Annual increases in rainfall are projected for the west and south of Aotearoa; annual decreases are projected for the north and east.

Higher temperatures and wind speeds, and lower rainfall and relative humidity are likely to raise the risk of wildfire.**^, ***

* See the Climate Change Projections for New Zealand: Atmosphere Projections Based on Simulations from the IPCC Fifth Assessment, 2nd Edition [PDF, 8.1 MB]

** See the Improved Estimates of the Effect of Climate Change on NZ Fire Danger [PDF, 1.2 MB]

*** See the Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Figure 2 illustrates the range of changes projected as a result of climate change.

Figure 2: Projected impact of climate change on Aotearoa

The scope of these projected changes is broad. Some will increase the intensity and frequency of natural hazards that have large-scale social and financial costs. We will need to ensure our communities, homes, buildings and places are resilient enough to cope with these. Other impacts will arise from general changes in weather patterns. For example, older people may suffer heat stress from a warmer climate, farmers may need to cope with drier conditions, and warmer oceans will affect our aquaculture industry.

We therefore need to use a diverse range of climate change scenarios that cover a number of possible futures. This allows us to prudently plan for a range of outcomes, including testing worst case scenarios. A degree of uncertainty is not a reason for inaction. Limiting the level of climate warming by mitigating emissions and building resilience to climate risk is the most effective way to reduce further losses and damages from climate change.

Adaptation will bring new opportunities we must seize

Our adaptation journey will also bring new opportunities along the way.

Warmer climates and the process of adaptation could bring lower winter heating costs, increased agriculture and horticulture productivity in new places, new fisheries species, more business and employment opportunities in sustainable sectors and new tourism offerings.

Actions in chapter 10: Economy and financial system, such as action 10.3: Deliver the Aquaculture Strategy, action 10.7: Continue delivering the Sustainable Food and Fibre Futures Fund and action 10.8: Establish innovation grants, can help New Zealanders harness upsides from the transition.

Seizing those opportunities will help us adapt and build resilience in a fair, just and equitable way.

We are used to managing natural hazards in Aotearoa, but adapting to climate change requires a different approach.

Natural hazard management has tended to be static and reactive, taking past events as a proxy for their future likelihood and consequences. Climate change is exacerbating the natural hazards we typically experience – making them more frequent and severe. It is also changing weather patterns in ways that are not necessarily hazardous, but are still challenging.

We need to be proactive in building resilience to natural hazards and other climate impacts, and shape our responses in a holistic way. Climate-related risk over longer timeframes is inherently uncertain. We must be flexible, so we can change direction as new information and understanding comes to light.

Adaptation is a process (see figure 3). It is a continuous journey of making a plan to assess risks, implementing the plan, monitoring and evaluating how effective the plan is, and adjusting as necessary.

The Climate Change Response Act 2002 establishes a process for that journey.

National risk assessments

The Act requires the Climate Change Commission to prepare national climate change risk assessments every six years.* These will assess the risks to the economy, society, environment and ecology. They will also identify the most significant risks based on their nature, severity and the need for a coordinated response.

* The Government prepared the first national climate change risk assessment, but progress reports and subsequent risk assessments are to be prepared by He Pou a Rangi – Climate Change Commission.

National adaptation plan

The next step is to prepare a national adaptation plan in response to the assessment and release a draft for consultation. Once New Zealanders have had their say on the draft plan, the plan is finalised and implemented.

Progress reports

The He Pou a Rangi – Climate Change Commission will then prepare two-yearly progress reports on how effective the plan is in reducing the risks. The Government must respond to the Commission’s report within six months.

Adjustment

At this point, we have the opportunity to adjust the national adaptation plan to ensure it meets the intended outcome. We also have obligations to report internationally on our progress.

Figure 3: Aotearoa New Zealand’s adaptation process over time

Adaptation is a journey we will take together.

Changing the way we do things – so our people, natural environment, built places and systems are resilient and can adapt – is an enormous challenge. But we can meet it by working together now to understand the risks, and taking action to manage them.

New Zealanders know from our vast experience with natural hazards – such as flooding and earthquakes – that we all have to prepare for them. Climate change is no different, although the range of impacts is wider than an increase in hazard events. We will all feel the effects and we all have a role in building resilience.

Central government, local government, iwi, hapū, whānau, the private sector, the research and scientific community, and communities and individuals all have different but complementary roles in our risk management system (see appendix 3). Central government cannot bear all of the costs of adaptation. Risk and costs will need to be shared between asset or property owners, their insurance companies, their banks, local government and central government.

Aotearoa is a resilient and innovative country. We need to work together to understand and prepare for the changes that will affect us.

Central government

Central government will take a leadership role in partnership with local government. It can establish regulatory and institutional settings that support effective adaptation – including, for example, supporting the right development in the right place. It can facilitate the availability of information and data for good risk-informed decision-making, and set direction to support local government and communities in their planning. Central government can ensure climate policy is a whole-of-government approach, in which each department or agency plays a part.

Central government also manages the investment in and risks to its own assets and to infrastructure. These include schools, hospitals, police stations and prisons, as well as services such as conservation and biosecurity. It also cares for a significant amount of Aotearoa New Zealand’s cultural heritage.

Central government funds post-disaster relief through mechanisms like the Toka Tū Ake EQC and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). It also supports vulnerable individuals through the welfare system. Increased resilience across the country can help the Government manage those costs, as well as the costs of maintaining its own assets and infrastructure.

Local government

Local government is at the centre of risk management planning and response because most hazard events occur at the local or regional scale. Climate change is felt locally, so local government will maintain its central role in helping communities to understand and respond together. Many communities and sectors are already collaborating to plan for a changing climate. Councils have statutory responsibilities to avoid or mitigate natural hazards and to have regard to the effects of climate change when making certain decisions. They are also responsible for civil defence and emergency management, and improving community resilience through public education and local planning. Their functions and duties relating to natural hazards include:

• land-use planning under the Resource Management Act 1991, including national direction
• civil defence as outlined in the Civil Defence Emergency Management Act 2002 and civil defence emergency management (CDEM) group plans
• asset management based on the Soil Conservation and Rivers Control Act 1941 and councils’ long-term plans and infrastructure strategies developed under the Local Government Act 2002
• building regulation based on the Building Act 2004
• disclosure of hazard information as required by the Local Government Official Information and Meetings Act 1987.

Councils also own assets, including infrastructure and forests, that are at risk from climate impacts.

Investment by local government in improved resilience can reduce the costs of new and improved infrastructure, support communities to pay rates, and reduce the likelihood of high‑cost interventions such as managed retreat.

Many councils are already addressing the impacts, and proactively integrating climate risk into current and future planning.

Māori

Māori play a unique role in adaptation – as Tiriti partners, tangata whenua and kaitiaki.

Māori as tangata whenua (people of the land) and kaitiaki (guardians) of their ancestral and cultural landscape will be affected by climate change. Certain whānau, hapū and iwi will be disproportionately affected, as will Māori interests, values, practices and wellbeing.

In accordance with the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi, the Government and Māori will need to make decisions together in a way that balances kāwanatanga (the Government’s right to govern) with rangatiratanga (the Māori right to make decisions for Māori). Mātauranga Māori (indigenous knowledge) and an indigenous worldview will provide a valuable lens for planning and considering solutions.

The platform for Māori climate action in the first national adaptation plan will be a key mechanism for empowering Māori to play a role in adaptation planning for Māori, by Māori.

Iwi across the country are also showing how we can adapt and thrive in a changing climate. In December 2021, South Taranaki iwi Ngaa Rauru Kiitahi published Ka Mate Kaainga Tahi, Ka Ora Kaainga Rua – The Ngaa Rauru Kiitahi Climate Change Strategy [PDF, 11.1 MB]. The strategy outlines how the iwi will work with others in the community to better adapt to the impacts of climate change and reduce emissions. Similarly, the Te Arawa Climate Change Working group is working to protect cultural infrastructure and communities through the Te Ara ki Kōpū: Te Arawa Climate Change Strategy [PDF, 6.9 MB].

Private sector

The private sector will face adaptation challenges. Businesses will need to strengthen their resilience to climate risks, including risks to their assets. Investment in resilience can both reduce risks and create new opportunities. Direct investment in adaptation can strengthen the resilience of infrastructure, production systems and supply chains. Good risk management includes understanding and developing strategies to manage these risks. Businesses may also find economic opportunities from better managing their risks, such as benefiting from new technologies and markets.

Banks and insurers may be exposed through their mortgage portfolios and liabilities. They can encourage resilience-building actions through their advice to customers, by providing loans or build-back-better post-event payments, and by sending market signals via their lending and insurance policies. 

Research and scientific community

The research and scientific community can also contribute to adaptation. Adaptation decisions at all levels must be based on the best available science. Producing that science and making it accessible to address climate risk – by reducing vulnerability, building adaptative capacity and increasing long-term resilience – is a cornerstone of advancing Aotearoa New Zealand’s adaptation action. The research strategy in chapter 11: Implementing the plan provides guidance on research to help us on our adaptation journey.

Communities and individuals

Climate change is increasingly affecting daily life – for example, rising costs due to disrupted supply chains, power cuts due to extreme weather, and the need to evacuate homes due to flooding or fires. Communities and individuals need to be involved in adaptation. Good information about the risks and impacts will help them make informed choices.

Individual asset owners will need to manage risks to their own assets – reducing risk, minimising the impacts of natural hazards when they occur, and avoiding adding to risk through poor development choices.

Upholding the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi is a central aspect of the Government’s long‑term adaptation strategy. That means the Government will develop adaptation responses in partnership with Māori – including elevating te ao Māori and mātauranga Māori in the adaptation process – and empower Māori in planning for Māori, by Māori. The platform for Māori climate action provided for in the first national adaptation plan will be central to establishing a foundation for this partnership.

Many Māori communities are located in rural and remote locations, and are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change on their homes, infrastructure and sites of cultural significance to Māori – including marae, urupā (burial grounds), waahi tapu (sacred sites) and mahinga kai (food gathering sites). In the Tairāwhiti rainfall event in March 2022, Anaura Bay – a coastal community with a high Māori population – was cut off due to widespread flooding and road slips. Hinetamatea marae suffered significant damage and part of the urupā was washed out to sea. Similar stories of other remote communities – in Mohaka, Raupunga, Tolaga Bay, the Waikato, and the Wairua Lagoons – of road closures, power cuts, kaimoana contamination and the potential for further displacement were told in submissions and workshops during the consultation phase of this plan.

Mātauranga Māori at a hapū and iwi level will be critical to informing local and central government climate adaptation responses.

The Government will work together with Māori to support Māori to explore adaptation options for Māori, led by Māori as part of Action 3.3 Establish a platform for Māori climate action.

The Government recognises that its Tiriti partners have a worldview that sits outside western interpretations. It has commissioned Ihirangi to provide an indigenous worldview of the national adaptation plan – which is represented by the Rauora framework – to help facilitate its work in partnership with Māori.

The Rauora framework (figure 4) is published alongside this strategy and in chapter 2: Our first national adaptation plan 2022–28. It brings together Māori values and principles into an indigenous worldview of climate change. The Rauora framework is a lens through which the adaptation strategy and national adaptation plans will be progressed.

How the Rauora framework will inform our journey will be established in partnership with Māori through the platform for Māori climate action (action 3.3). The platform is a vehicle for both mitigation and adaptation action and is therefore also a key action in the emissions reduction plan. This is consistent with the Rauora principle of interconnectedness.

The Rauora framework is also a foundation from which iwi, hapū and whānau can apply their own mātauranga-a-iwi (knowledge with an iwi-specific base).

The notion of whenua ora, tangata ora, mauri ora recognises that the land, people and associated life forces are interconnected. In this way, a well land is a well people, and so too are the life forces of these components of the world healthy. The notion of kaitiakitanga is implicit in this approach, where Māori continue to strengthen their stewardship of the environment.

The Rauora framework supports and promotes transformative approaches, resilience building and supporting measures. It elevates and celebrates the contributions indigenous values and mātauranga Māori can bring to climate action.

Figure 4: Rauora: A climate change framework

No two communities will experience climate change in the same way. Inequity arises through multiple domains, including income, housing, employment and accessibility. Climate change can also increase existing inequities. For example, some groups are more susceptible to harm due to where they live – such as coastal communities. Others may be disproportionately affected by financial impacts or lack the resources to adapt – such as low-income and beneficiary households – or have specific adaptation needs – such as older people and disabled people. Some regions are at risk from coastal erosion and flooding, while others are already dealing with drought. Tangata whenua face the loss of wāhi tapu (sacred sites) and taonga species.

Our adaptation strategy and national adaptation plans must support New Zealanders in ways that recognise their unique needs, values and circumstances.

An equitable transition for all New Zealanders is important. To ensure that our transition is equitable, fair and inclusive, we will need to:

• uphold Te Tiriti o Waitangi, work in partnership with Māori to address climate risk, maximise opportunities and avoid disproportionately affecting Māori or locking in existing inequities
• work inclusively with affected groups to understand their needs
• take opportunities to reduce inequalities and support communities and regions to promote resilience in line with local objectives
• prioritise support to those most affected and least able to adapt, particularly lower-income households
• set clear, stable policies that provide predictability for communities and businesses, allowing them time to plan, respond and seize opportunities
• support workers to adapt by transitioning to quality jobs at lower risk from the effects of climate change
• ensure adaptation decisions balance the need to avoid abrupt and disruptive changes with the need for early action to address near-term risks, reduce costs over time and avoid an inequitable burden on future generations.

The Government has identified the following goals that underpin this long-term adaptation strategy:

• reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change – this means reducing the sensitivity and susceptibility of people and systems to climate impacts
• enhance adaptive capacity and consider climate change in decisions at all levels – this means helping people, institutions and systems to adjust to climate change by building their capacity to respond and embedding climate resilience across and through all levels of government
• strengthen resilience – this means taking action that strengthens the way people and systems cope with immediate climate impacts, as well as building capacity for learning and transformational adaptation.

These goals are consistent with the global goal on adaptation under the Paris Agreement and should be implemented in an interlinked and systemic way.

Aotearoa is also a signatory to several international agreements that support action to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. These include the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, as well as agreements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, including the Paris Agreement.

The Government has also identified ten principles that underpin the long-term adaptation strategy (figure 5). These principles reflect the need for our adaptation strategy to be intergenerational, flexible, proactive, responsive, holistic and inclusive – drawing on elements of the Rauora framework. These goals and principles underpin the priorities and adaptation actions in this first national adaptation plan. They will guide the implementation of this plan, and future national adaptation plans.

Figure 5: Principles guiding our adaptation strategy