Climate projections insights
Projections on how climate change could affect New Zealand as a whole and for different regions.
Aotearoa New Zealand experienced its second warmest year on record in 2023, just shy of the record set in 2022, with an average temperature of 13.6 °C.
Climate change projections for Aotearoa show further warming is projected by 2090, with more hot days and fewer cold days across the country over the next decades.
Understanding how frequent and severe these events could be in the future can help New Zealanders understand their climate-related risks.
The projections are based on scenarios. Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were used for these projections, which are global emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
See Understand climate variables and scenarios.
The projected changes are calculated for three future time periods: 2021 to 2040, 2041 to 2060 and 2081 to 2099. These are referred to by their mid-points - 2030, 2050 and 2090. Average values are provided for each time period. The future periods can be compared to two historical baseline periods, 1986 to 2005 or 1995 to 2014.
Temperature
The average annual temperature in Aotearoa New Zealand was 10.7°C in the 1995-2014 period. By 2090, annual average temperatures across the country are projected to increase by 0.8°C in SSP1-2.6, by 1.9°C in SSP2-4.5, and by 3.0°C in SSP3-7.0.
The range of these annual average temperatures across Aotearoa are projected to be between 0.3°C and 1.2°C warmer by 2030, between 0.6°C and 2.1°C warmer by 2050, and between 0.7°C and 4.6°C warmer by 2090. These ranges are across all SSPs.
More hot days - days when maximum daily temperatures are over 25˚C - are projected for most of New Zealand, with the north and east North Island projected to experience the most change. For example, the Far North District is projected to experience between 22 and 87 more hot days on average by 2090.
Fewer frost days - where minimum daily temperatures are below 0˚C - per year are projected in the west and south of the South Island. For example, the Mackenzie District is projected to experience the greatest decline in frost days per year, with an average of between 15 and 54 fewer frost days annually by 2090.
Rainfall
The North Island is projected to have less annual rainfall by 2090, particularly in the north and the east. The north and the east of the South Island are also projected to have less annual rainfall by 2090, however, the west and south of the South Island are projected to have more annual rainfall by 2090. For example, the Southland District is projected to receive on average between 5 and 8 per cent more annual rainfall by 2090.
There are expected to be more very rainy days – where daily rainfall exceeds 25 mm - for many regions, especially in the Westland District which is projected to experience between 3 and 5 more very rainy days on average by 2090. However, the Gisborne District is projected to experience between 0 and 2 fewer very rainy days on average by 2090.
Drought
Drought exposure is projected to increase over the east and decrease in the west of the North and South Islands. For example, the Kaikōura District is projected to experience an increase in drought exposure by 2090.
Wind
There are projected to be fewer windy days - with maximum wind speed more than 10 metres per second - per year for much of the North Island, and more windy days per year in most of the South Island by 2090. For example, Dunedin City is projected to experience between 4 and 6 more windy days per year on average by 2090. Wellington City is projected to experience between 2 more and 5 fewer windy days per year on average by 2090.