The SPANZ Scenarios Synthesis Report: AR5 can be downloaded from the NIWA website.
The report describes each SPANZ scenario in more detail and the methodology used to develop them.
The Shared Climate Policy Assumptions for New Zealand (SPANZ) scenarios were developed by a consortium of New Zealand research entities and published in 2016.
The scenarios were developed to illustrate how approaches to mitigation and adaptation might impact the future of Aotearoa New Zealand.
The process for developing the SPANZ scenarios involved:
- nesting each scenario within a Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP)
- aligning each scenario with a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP).
The SPANZ scenarios paint a broad view of the potential socio-economic outcomes for policy decision-making and action, both globally and within Aotearoa New Zealand.
The SPANZ scenarios are national-scale socio-economic scenarios developed for New Zealand that are nested within IPCC SSPs and RCPs.
They describe potential mitigation and adaptation policies specific to New Zealand, enabling divergence of New Zealand-specific futures from assumed trends in the global SSPs.
Although the SPANZ scenarios have not be updated since 2016, public sector entities may find the scenarios (or elements of the scenarios) useful for exploring possible climate futures for Aotearoa New Zealand.
While the SPANZ scenarios were based on existing research strengths and designed with considerations for stakeholder resonance and engagement, the necessarily subjective selection choices result in a reduced set of scenarios from the IPCC SSPs and RCPs.
Read more about limitations of the SPANZ scenarios in the SPANZ Scenarios Synthesis Report: RA5 (PDF, 943 KB) [NIWA website].
The SPANZ scenarios are based on the IPCC’s SSP and RCP scenarios.
Read more about limitations of the IPCC scenarios.
The latest version of the SPANZ scenarios was developed and published in 2016. Some of the data and assumptions may be outdated.
The SPANZ scenarios use data downscaled for New Zealand that is based on the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios of AR5. In early 2024 NIWA is due to release new downscaled data for New Zealand based on the latest IPCC AR6 reporting.
The six SPANZ scenarios each have a different narrative and emissions trajectory.
| SSP1 | SSP2 | SSP3 | SSP4 | SSP5 | |
| RCP8.5 |
Unspecified Pacific No migration, fragmented world, reactive NZ (8.5 3 -A) |
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| RCP6.0 |
Homo economicus Global growth with little mitigation, NZ does minimum but adapts smartly (6.0 5-D) |
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| RCP4.5 |
Kicking, screaming Fragmented world that mitigates through power blocks, NZ dragged along (4.5 3-A) |
Clean leader Global growth, significant mitigation, NZ leads, strategically exploits competitive advantage (4.5 5-F) |
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| RCP2.6 |
100% smart Global cohesive sustainabiility focused world with ambitious mitigation, with nZ riding front wave (2.6 1-F |
Techno-garden Global ambitious mitigation in a cohesive rich world focused on economic gain, NZ keeps economic focus (2.6 5-B) |
Unspecific Pacific
The Pacific scenario outlines evident economic decline in the region, marked by:
- global trade breakdown
- security issues
- rising conflict
- increasing refugees
- continued fossil fuel use
- increased livestock production.
Short-term economic interests drive adaptation, neglecting vulnerable groups and non-monetary values.
Transformational changes are rare unless they serve dominant interests, with limited attention to transition management.
Economic values take precedence over environmental and social values. Water access relies on a first-come, first-served policy, with insufficient flow regimes and water quality.
Trade is dominated by shifting power blocks with opaque rules. In a resource-constrained world, environmental goals lack market premiums. Immigration is economically regulated with limited foresight for demographic challenges.
Homo Economicus
In the Homo Economicus scenario, competition for power through economic dominance in a globalised trade regime will drive strong regional migration for labour supply.
New Zealand prioritises mitigation due to economic benefits through links to the global CO₂ markets and the use of selective land-use accounting. Climate change impacts are considered mainly for their economic implications. Agriculture maximises production without facing carbon charges.
Assets are protected with additional infrastructure. Strategic land-use decisions focus on medium-term economic gains.
Strategic adaptation in New Zealand addresses significant climate change for economic viability, with transformations primarily defined by extended-term economic returns.
Under this scenario:
- tangible economic values are prioritised over environmental and social ones
- water access rights are auctioned
- global trade requirements are prioritised over "clean green" branding.
Immigration is economically regulated, with high discount rates driving government expenditure and low priority for environmental conservation.
Clean Leader
In this scenario, New Zealand's economic dominance in global markets leads to increased homogenisation through technology, trade, and economic migration.
- New Zealand is a forefront leader in global mitigation, achieving net CO₂ neutrality before 2100 through innovation and policies, including forestry incentives.
- Emissions from agriculture are fully priced in an internationally linked trading scheme.
- Strategic land-use decisions prioritise economic growth in a carbon-constrained world.
- Adaptation minimises economic risks, and decision-making considers environmental and social values by monetising their worth, including auctioning water access rights.
- Trade prioritises global market requirements, leveraging a “clean green” brand and innovation.
- Immigration is economically regulated, and variable discount rates are explored for change, gaining global attention for NZ goods and services.
- Environmental conservation is a robust government-business partnership.
Kicking, Screaming
The Kicking, Screaming scenario is a competitive trade block in which countries in the region seek alliances serving immediate interests.
- Disparities persist, with some nations facing severe poverty while others and urban elites rapidly gain wealth.
- Market competitiveness concerns drive climate action.
- New Zealand lags in global mitigation, adopting weak targets, selective land-use accounting, and exempting agriculture from carbon charges for competitive parity.
- Adaptation is piecemeal, reactive, and economically motivated.
- Transformation occurs haphazardly, with little protection for vulnerable groups or environmental considerations.
- Prioritisation favours tangible economic values over environmental and social ones.
- Water access relies on a first-come, first-served policy, optimising land-based production.
- High discount rates drive government expenditure, and environmental conservation is a low priority.
Techno-Garden
The region leverages its abundant labour force within a global trade regime in the Techno-Garden scenario.
- Rapid homogenisation occurs due to new technologies and economic migration.
- New Zealand adheres to stringent global mitigation through cost-effective measures, utilising new technologies, trade, and accounting.
- Land use emphasises livestock production for maximum efficiency in global markets.
- Adaptation is limited, focusing on asset protection and immediate cost reduction, with transformations guided by near-term economic metrics.
- Natural resource protection is strategic, considering economic value with sophisticated models.
- Intangible values receive limited consideration amid rapid technological shifts.
- Water rights are auctioned with some safeguards.
- Global trade efficiency remains a priority, with New Zealand innovating in livestock production.
- Immigration prioritises economic and structural benefits over refugee protection.
- Variable discount rates drive change, gaining a global profile for NZ goods and services with environmental conservation led by a robust government-business partnership.
100% Smart
New Zealand capitalises on an efficient global trade regime in the Smart scenario, growing the service industry and niche products for local markets and sustainable resource use.
- Migration aims to balance economic benefits with protecting local and indigenous populations and preserving cultural differences.
- New Zealand leads in stringent global mitigation, targeting CO₂ neutrality by 2050 and making aggressive investments to reduce emissions from agriculture.
- Adaptation focuses on strategic transitions in land use and urban design for sustainability and resilience, with some high near-term costs.
- Transformations actively protect vulnerable segments of society while allowing systems to re-adjust.
- The preservation of natural resources and non-monetary values emphasises the clean-green image.
- Water rights are auctioned with firm safeguards for environmental values.
- New Zealand exploits a market premium for climate-friendly products, allowing the shift away from livestock land uses.
- Immigration considers refugees and voluntary migrants, addressing labour force development and demographic challenges.
- Low social discount rates alter government priorities in infrastructure development and environmental protection.